Tynivskaya heading for 200 million cubic meters of gas
Even better than the optimistic models expected. The data from the Tynivskaya licence in western Ukraine speak clearly, the deposit has huge potential, which MND Ukraine is gradually uncovering. Daily production is increasing day by day and the biggest limitation is the surface technology, which lacks sufficient capacity and is still being strengthened.
In early August, Tynivskaya surpassed the 100 million cubic meter production mark. And it was only this year that full production started there.
"We are producing around 600,000 cubic meters per day in Ukraine, of which the Tynivskaya license alone produces 500,000. By comparison, the successful Girskaya licence produced the most in history at 330,000 cubic metres," said Lukas Svozil, head of MND Ukraine.
Development at Tynivskaya is fast-paced. Drilling started in January 2024 and by June it was already producing. In doing so, a complete infrastructure had to be built - despite the swamps and complicated terrain.
The more that is drilled and the better the deposit is known, the more accurate the estimates of what reserves are underground. And those estimates are increasingly optimistic. Development is so rapid that the entire infrastructure has to be strengthened for higher and higher production.
Whereas before, the most optimistic scenarios were talking about daily production perhaps reaching 700,000 cubic meters per day under the right constellations, now that number is already a conservative forecast for the more pessimistic scenarios.
"We have sized the pipeline according to the original calculations. Then it had to be strengthened along its entire length because it was no longer enough. At that time, the idea was to produce 300,000 cubic meters per day. However, with each new well, the results are more optimistic. Now we have to double the pipeline to give it sufficient capacity. This will be done in a total of five phases," says Lukáš. At the end of August, the first part of the new six-kilometre pipeline was completed, which will allow production to increase.
Dynamic model helps with forecasting
The estimates were significantly refined by the dynamic model created by geologist Milan Pagáč in Hodonín, as we wrote in our last Report. The model is one of the key tools for the development of the deposit and its further "life" over the coming years. It is a simulation that continuously shows what the deposit looks like so that it can be extracted as efficiently as possible.
The dynamic model even talks about a peak daily production of 1.5 million cubic metres. However, this is only a short-term peak of a few months. But production above a million could sustain the deposit for quite a long time. "According to calculations, we should get to a billion cubic meters overall. And we're only talking about two horizons - there are four more prospective ones," Lukáš recalls.
The task of sizing the technology to be sufficient for future production without being unnecessarily excessive is not an easy one. "We are doing everything we can to be able to achieve this. From the original exploration centre, we are creating a large centre capable of producing large amounts of gas on the fly," says Lukas, adding that the infrastructure is set to be completed by the end of this year.
Currently, eleven wells have been completed at Tynivskaya, ten of which are already producing and one is about to come on production. Three more are planned for this year and then it remains to be seen how to proceed as these wells will open up new horizons. So far, MND has produced 122 million cubic metres at Tynivskaya and the 200 million mark is expected to fall at the end of the year - with daily production of 800,000 cubic metres.
The total annual plan of MND in Ukraine has been set at 130 million cubic meters. In mid-August, it was already 120 million, so this target is sure to be surpassed.
And by the end of the year drilling will start on new licenses - Pivdenogirskaya and Zhukivskaya. "We have the appetite," adds Lukáš.
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